SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 17/7/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~35 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6220/30
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6384 SUP 6204
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6290/6300
DAILY RANGE RES 6357 SUP 6240
2 SIGMA RES 6417 SUP 6180
GAP LEVELS 6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX BULL JULY CONTRACT BEAR ZONE 21.35 DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 20
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - BALANCE - 6341/6241
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE SUP
LONG ON ACCEPTANCE ABOVE DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: MIXED PERFORMANCE
FICC and Equities | July 16, 2025 | 9:10 PM UTC
Market Overview:
- S&P 500: Closed +32bps at 6,263, with MOC $700m to SELL.
- NASDAQ (NDX): Finished +10bps at 22,907.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): Advanced +96bps to 2,239.
- Dow Jones: Rose +53bps, closing at 44,254.
- Volume: 17.8 billion shares traded across U.S. equity exchanges, above the YTD daily average of 16.8 billion.
- VIX: Declined -127bps to 17.16.
- Crude Oil: Down -15bps to $66.61.
- U.S. 10-Year Yield: Lower by -2bps, ending at 4.45%.
- Gold: Gained +53bps to $3,354.
- Dollar Index (DXY): Dropped -33bps to 98.29.
- Bitcoin: Slightly down -5bps, closing at $119,381.
Session Highlights:
Stocks saw modest gains despite intra-day volatility driven by Powell-Trump rhetoric. The Supreme Court’s 1935 landmark ruling reaffirming Congress' authority over independent federal agencies remains pivotal, as board members can only be removed "for cause." Trading leaned heavily on macro drivers, with ETFs accounting for 37% of activity—the highest in weeks.
Economic Data:
June’s PPI was unchanged, with components tied to core PCE showing net softness. Based on PPI and CPI details, core PCE for June is now estimated at 0.26%. Yields slightly retreated but continue to keep investors cautious. Liquidity at the top of the book dropped to $6.8mm versus $10.45mm yesterday.
Sector & Earnings Insights:
Bank earnings excluding MTB exceeded expectations but traded heavy due to rotation into:
1. Asset managers (especially alternatives) following WSJ’s report on 401k inclusion.
2. Auto insurers benefiting from a modest relief rally as PGR’s monthly results beat expectations despite competitive concerns.
Regarding alternatives and 401k inclusion, GIR estimates a 5-16% revenue TAM increase. Investor sentiment remains mixed—bears highlight poor adoption in APO/STT funds, while bulls reference private BDCs and REITs as better benchmarks (TY DeGrasse).
Trading Activity:
Floor activity was moderate, rated a 5 on a 1-10 scale. The floor finished +280bps to buy, compared to a 30-day average of +30bps. Client activity was muted:
- Long-only funds (LOs): Slight net buyers, driven by macro products and tech.
- Hedge funds (HFs): Slight net buyers, focused on tech, financials, and healthcare, partially offset by macro shorts.
After-Hours Movers:
- SRPT (+45%): Announced restructuring and preannounced Q2 results around consensus. Black box warning for ambulant patients did not severely impact Elevidys sales, avoiding extreme safety concerns.
- UAL (+1%): Slight EPS beat and revenue slightly below estimates, but FY outlook cut (Q3 EPS guidance: $2.25-$2.75 vs. $2.65 consensus; FY guidance: $9-$11 vs. $9.92). Desk views expectations as low despite post-DAL print. Focus tomorrow on Newark impact, supply trends, and Q4 seasonality.
Derivatives Action:
Following two days of bank earnings, clients added left-tail protection via VIX upside and SPX downside hedges as markets traded near highs. With rumors intensifying around Trump potentially firing Powell, investors sought summer correction hedges. Desk prefers outright NDX puts or SPX 1x2 put spreads due to steep 5-day put pricing.
In single stocks, stock replacement strategies were recommended, especially in semiconductors (AMD/NVDA/SMH). NVDA January topside vols remain attractive in the mid-30s (low). Weekly straddle closed at ~0.77%.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!