SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 12/8/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~25 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6350/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6504 SUP 6324
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6440/50
DAILY RANGE RES 6455 SUP 6338
2 SIGMA RES 6513 SUP 6280
GAP LEVELS 6367/6264/6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING UP 6387
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE SUP
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE SUP TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: AWAITING CPI
FICC and Equities | August 11, 2025 | 8:35 PM UTC
- S&P 500: -25bps, closing at 6,373 with MOC $1.9b to SELL.
- NASDAQ 100 (NDX): -36bps, closing at 23,526.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): -10bps, closing at 2,216.
- Dow Jones: -45bps, closing at 44,975.
Market Volume & Volatility
16.4 billion shares traded across U.S. equity exchanges vs. YTD daily average of 16.9 billion.
- VIX: +6.07%, closing at 16.08.
Commodities & Currencies
- Crude Oil: +28bps at $64.06.
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: Unchanged at 4.27%.
- Gold: -135bps at $3,351.
- Dollar Index (DXY): +42bps at 98.59.
- Bitcoin: +42bps at $118,856.
Key Observations
Low-quality stocks, retail "meme favorites," and highly liquid shorts led gains as day traders re-engaged, buoyed by Bitcoin reclaiming highs. Hedge fund (HF) positioning remained steady, with VIP longs vs. VIP shorts holding firm. Goldman Sachs PB data indicated U.S. equities were net sold at the fastest pace in four months last week, driven by short sales outpacing long buys. U.S.-listed ETF shorts rose +4% (now up +5.7% month/month), led by Corporate Bond, Large Cap Equity, and Info Tech ETFs. Lower-quality market segments remain prone to upward gaps.
NASDAQ Highlights
The NDX hit new all-time highs midday, despite AAPL giving back some of last week's gains following its strongest weekly performance in five years (+12.3%). Momentum broadly supported price action, though software weakness persisted for the third consecutive day. Uncertainty continues to dominate the narrative, overshadowing any specific AI-related headwinds.
Trading Floor Activity
Activity levels rated a 4/10 overall. The session ended +160bps better to buy, with ~$1b in net demand. Long-only (LO) positions skewed 7% better to buy, led by demand in Healthcare and Financials, followed by Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary. Hedge funds were net buyers, focusing on Macro Products and Discretionary sectors while net selling Info Tech.
Focus on Russell 2000 (R2K)
Heightened attention on IWM ahead of tomorrow's CPI release. Futures teams noted record-high R2K shorts from July 22 to August 5, with hedge funds short-selling $4.3b—the largest two-week amount in at least a decade. Analyst Ryan Hammond advises investors to prepare for potential sharp rotations toward low-quality stocks, emphasizing their upside convexity in case of a favorable macroeconomic outlook, such as a soft CPI print.
CPI Expectations
- Core CPI: Expected +0.33% increase for July (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.08% (vs. +3.0% consensus).
- Headline CPI: Expected +0.27% increase (vs. +0.2% consensus), driven by higher food prices (+0.3%) but offset by lower energy prices (-0.6%). Year-over-year rate projected at 2.80% (in line with consensus)..
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!