Further Poor UK Data
On the back of yesterday's UK GDP print which showed that economic activity contracted 0.3% in the three months through October, UK traders suffered yet further bad news today. UK wages were seen rising 6.1% over the same period, up from 6% prior while the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.6% prior. With prices rising and the workforce weakening, the near-term economic outlook for the UK has shifted lower again. Focus now turns to the BOE meeting on Thursday.
Recession Risks & BOE
The BOE outlined UK recession risks last time around, warning that the UK was likely at the start of a 2-year recession. This week’s data looks to have confirmed this view and traders are now expecting the BOE to double down on the gloomy warnings offered last time around. Given the recession risks facing the UK the market is looking for a further .5% hike. However, on the back of the recent record inflation print and with wages seen rising again upside risks are visible into the meeting.
Technical Views
6B (GBP Futures)
Looking at the market, the breakout above the bearish trend line has seen price trading up to test the summer highs around 1.2270. Price is currently stalled here. However, with momentum studies firmly bullish, focus is on a continued push higher and a test of the 1.2683 level next. Should we reverse from here however, 1.1730 is the next support to note.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.