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US Jobs Jump Last Month
Friday’s US labour market numbers certainly made for interesting reading. A bumper NFP result of 339k vs 193k expected would certainly make a strong case for the Fed hiking again this month. On the back of the prior month’s 253k number being revised higher to 294k, the US economy is clearly adding jobs at a strong pace. However, a simultaneous jump in the unemployment rate from 3.4% to 3.7%, along with wage growth cooling to 0.3% from 0.4% has kept market expectations anchored around an unchanged decision. Pricing for an unchanged decision is currently sitting around the 80%, up from around 30% two weeks ago.
Hawkish Pause Expected from Fed
Despite current pricing, USD is on the move higher today with gold prices coming under heavy selling pressure. The June meeting looks to be setting up for a hawkish pause, where the Fed hold rates steady but signals that further tightening might still be necessary. In light of the continued growth in US jobs, traders are perhaps anticipating a more hawkish message from the Fed when it meets, which would keep metals pressured lower near-term if seen.
Technical Views
XAUUSD
The failure at the 2069.41 level has seen the market breaking down below the 1973.51 level. With a failed attempt at reclaiming the level, price is now probing below the bull channel lows. In line with bearish momentum studies readings, the focus below here is on a move down to the 1871.04 level next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.