US Data Dump Due

The Dow Jones is holding just below a major resistance level on Thursday as traders brace for a slew of US data later today. US ISM Services PMI, ADP employment change, unemployment claims and JOLTS job openings are all on deck. Following a muted few sessions for the Dollar, today’s data might drive some movement ahead of the jobs reports tomorrow, which should cause some volatility in stocks.

Near-Term Risks for USD?

Broadly speaking, any positive US data here is seen as supporting the case for fresh Fed tightening in July. As such, any strength in today’s data (while positive for stocks in the sense that it serves as evidence against a potential recession) should keep USD supported near-term. However, with market pricing for a July hike sitting over 90%, the bar for fresh USD upside is set quite high, particularly with bigger data due tomorrow.

NFP in Focus Tomorrow

As such, there might be better risk reward today if we see any unexpected weakness in any of the readings which should see USD weaken a little, allowing stocks to move higher.  Given the conviction in the market, it would likely take a material downside shock to negatively impact July rate hike pricing. Again, the bigger focus is on tomorrow’s jobs reports. As such, the Dow looks likely to remain fairly local until tomorrow’s release as traders brace for the latest NFP result.

Technical Views

Dow Jones

For now, the market is being held up at the 34523.58 level. This has been a major cap for the market over the last year and if bulls manage to break higher here, this will be a significant bullish development. To the downside, 33576.05 remains the next support to note.