Daily Market Outlook, November 29, 2022
Daily Market Outlook, November 29, 2022
‘Bullard Breakdown Reverses On Improved China Sentiment...’
Global equity markets were once again rocked by Fed official comments that underpinned a hawkish view, with members supporting the higher for longer rate path, however, markets have stabilised overnight with the majority of Asian equity markets trading higher this morning, the rebound appears to be prompted by some cooling in Chinese tensions as police kept protests to a minimum, and further positives were taken as Chinese health authorities announced an increase in the pace of vaccination amongst the over 80's, as Health Officials seek to avoid further excessive Covid restrictions. In earnings released this morning, Easyjet reported better-than-expected revenues and improved pre-tax loss of 178mln versus an expected 184.9mln, the company highlighted that operational performance in Q4 is better than performance seen in Q4 2019, and that Q1 23 bookings look positive with Easter ticket sale a standout.
On the data front for the day ahead, the focus in the UK will be on bank lending data which is expected to show a decline given the recent rate increases, specifically markets expect mortgage lending to bear the brunt of the pressure as the data period covers the disastrous mini-Budget period when rates spiked. BoE’s Bailye is also set to speak today in th ehosue of Lords comments will be parsed for any further clues as to the Banks rate path. In the Eurozone, CPI updates from Germany and Spain will provide some timely insight into what markets can expect from the broader Eurozone print tomorrow. In the US Focus will be on consumer confidence surveys which are expected to have declined for the second month in a row. US house prices are also expected to have taken another hit as the housing market in the US continues to cool, with Fed officials pointing to a higher terminal rate for interest rates, markets expect a continued buyers strike.
Overnight Headlines
Heavy Police Presence Thwarts Another Night Of China Protests
US Dollar Holds Firm As China's Covid-Related Worries Weigh
Oil Surges As Speculation OPEC+ Will Cut Production Intensifies
Japan's Job Market Remains Tight, Keeping Pressure On Wages
Japan Retail Sales Up For 8th Month On Tourism Reopening
NZIER Sees RBNZ Cash Rate Peaking At 5% In 2023
Biden Calls On Congress To Pass Legislation To Avert Rail Shutdown
Fed’s Barkin Urges Slowing Rate Hikes But Higher Destination
Fed Officials Say More Rate Hikes Coming; Williams Flags Path To Cuts
BOE Starts Sales Of Bonds Bought In UK Market Mayhem
US Dollar Holds Firm As China's Covid-Related Worries Weigh
Oil Surges As Speculation OPEC+ Will Cut Production Intensifies
EU Discusses Russian Oil Price Cap As Low As $62 As Talks Slow
Hong Kong Stocks Jump 4% Ahead Of China’s Covid Briefing
Adobe Analytics: Retailers On Track For Record Cyber Monday
Amazon Launches Powerful New Chip To Take On Intel And AMD
Microsoft Likely To Offer EU Concessions Soon In Activision Deal
Sony To Supply Apple With Advanced Image Sensor For Next iPhone
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3940
Technicals
Primary support is 3940
Primary upside objective is 4120
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050
Failure below 3930 opens a test of 3900
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0340
Technicals
Primary support is 1.0340
Primary upside objective is 1.0620
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0485
Failure below 1.03 opens a test of 1.0220
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0265 (451M), 1.0275-80 (260M), 1.0375-80 (428M), 1.0400 (240M), 1.0445-50 (861M), 1.0465-75 (568M), 1.0650 (235M)
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GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1950
Technicals
Primary support is 1.1950
Primary upside objective 1.22
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.21
Failure below 1.19 opens a test of 1.1770
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/A
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USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 140
Technicals
Primary resistance is 140
Primary downside objective is 136
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138
Acceptance above 142.20 opens a test of 143
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 137.50-55 (448M), 139.00 (550M), 139.70 (277M), 140.00 (244M)
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AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650
Technicals
Primary support is .6650
Primary upside objective is .6900
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775
Failure below .6660 opens a test of .6600
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6620-25 (248M), 0.6727 (387M)
USD/CAD: 1.3275 (514M), 1.3350-60 (260M)
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BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16100
Technicals
Intraday 16100 is primary resistance
Primary upside objective is 17000
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 16750
Failure 16000 opens a test of 15500
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!